URGENT UPDATE: Bitcoin (BTC) is set to soar to a new all-time high in 2026, according to a groundbreaking analysis from Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. This forecast, released in a note just yesterday, suggests a break from Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, which has historically dictated its price movements.
Analysts indicate that the forces driving Bitcoin’s previous cycles are weakening, paving the way for a sustained price surge. Factors such as pro-crypto regulations and a wave of institutional investments through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are anticipated to support Bitcoin’s rise in 2026. Notably, Bank of America has begun allowing its financial advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs, potentially channeling portions of its $3.5 trillion in client assets into crypto.
In Hougan’s words, “The forces that previously drove four-year cycles — the Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts — are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles.” This statement underscores a pivotal shift in the market as it prepares for the transition into what some analysts are calling the “institutional era.”
Historically, Bitcoin has adhered to a four-year cycle, characterized by three consecutive years of price gains followed by a sharp pullback. However, predictions for 2026 suggest a departure from this trend, especially following the recent halving event in April 2024.
The research division of asset manager Grayscale shares this optimistic outlook, projecting that Bitcoin will set new records in the first half of 2026. They cite increased macro demand for alternative stores of value amidst rising public debt and clearer regulatory frameworks as key supporting factors.
Moreover, the prevailing interest rate environment is now deemed favorable for cryptocurrencies. The US Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025, with expectations for continued easing into next year, marking a stark contrast to the pressures seen in 2018 and 2022.
Bitwise also highlights a significant decrease in Bitcoin’s volatility over the past decade. In fact, during 2025, Bitcoin’s price changes were less volatile than those of tech giant Nvidia. This trend is expected to persist, with predictions of diminishing correlation between Bitcoin and stock markets in 2026.
As Hougan notes, “Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks will likely decrease as crypto regulatory progress and institutional adoption push prices upward, even if equities struggle with valuation concerns.” Earlier this year, Bitcoin maintained a strong correlation with the NASDAQ-100, but recent data shows it followed the index primarily during downturns.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, down nearly 1% as of publication.
This forecast comes at a critical juncture for crypto investors, with institutional interest ramping up and regulatory clarity improving. The anticipated influx of institutional capital in 2026 could reshape the landscape of digital assets significantly.
As the market braces for these developments, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months. Investors should watch for further regulatory moves and institutional endorsements that could bolster confidence in the cryptocurrency market.
Stay tuned for more updates as this story unfolds.
