Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is experiencing a significant decline in support from his traditional allies, Russia and China, as President Donald Trump intensifies military pressure against Caracas. Historically, both nations have offered military equipment, financial aid, and army training to bolster Maduro’s government amid escalating tensions with the United States. However, their recent actions suggest a strategic withdrawal from this support.
Shifting Alliances and Diminishing Support
In 2018, Russia showcased its military backing by deploying two nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela, signaling solidarity against perceived American aggression. Yet, as Russia approaches the fourth year of its ongoing conflict in Ukraine, its assistance to Venezuela has dwindled. Currently, the only support Moscow has provided consists of two oil tankers to aid Caracas in exporting its crude oil to China, according to Vladimir Rouvinski, an international relations professor at Icesi University.
Rouvinski emphasizes that these gestures are insufficient if the United States escalates its military actions against Venezuela. He stated, “These are small gestures that are not going to be sufficient if the US moves to deadly force on Venezuela.” The shifting focus of both Russia and China appears to stem from their own diplomatic and economic challenges, leading them to avoid aggravating relations with the Trump administration.
Historical Context and Economic Consequences
Venezuela has invested years in cultivating ties with Beijing, Moscow, and other nations opposed to the US, aiming to establish an economic alliance to counter Western influence. Hugo Chavez, Maduro’s predecessor, capitalized on the country’s abundant oil and mineral resources, securing over $30 billion in loans and partnerships with China, Russia, Cuba, and Iran to enhance national infrastructure. However, since Maduro took office in 2013, these alliances have weakened due to plummeting oil production and rampant civil unrest. The imposition of US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in 2019 further complicated these agreements.
China stands to face significant losses should Maduro’s government collapse, having invested more than $30 billion in military supplies to Venezuela since 2000, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The current geopolitical dynamics mirror those experienced by Iran during the recent 12-day conflict, where both Russia and China refrained from providing substantial assistance to Tehran amid US-Israeli military actions.
In the face of growing tensions, Maduro reached out for help last month as US military forces began to gather in the Caribbean. Correspondence obtained by the Washington Post revealed that he directly requested support from Russian President Vladimir Putin for defensive radars, aircraft repairs, and even missiles. Additionally, Maduro sought an “expanded military cooperation” with Chinese President Xi Jinping to counter the escalating threats from the United States.
The evolving landscape of international relations highlights Venezuela’s precarious position and the potential ramifications for Maduro’s administration as his allies appear to distance themselves from his government.
