College Football Playoff First Round: Key Matchups and Predictions

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff first round features four exciting matchups, each with its own compelling storylines. This stage includes teams aiming for redemption and others looking to prove their worth. With these games set to unfold, fans can expect intense competition as teams vie for advancement to the quarterfinals.

No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners

The first matchup pits the Alabama Crimson Tide against the Oklahoma Sooners on December 1, 2025, at 8 PM ET. This game marks a significant rematch after Oklahoma’s victory earlier in the season, where they edged Alabama 23-21. Both teams enter the playoffs with a 10-2 record, with Oklahoma making its first playoff appearance under head coach Brent Venables and Alabama seeking redemption after a recent defeat in the SEC championship game.

As the Crimson Tide prepare, they must address their challenges against Oklahoma’s defense. Quarterback Ty Simpson has faced heavy pressure throughout the season, and with an alarming 45.5% of his dropbacks resulting in blitzes, he will need to devise effective strategies to counter Venables’ aggressive defense. Alabama’s run game has struggled, averaging only 4.0 yards per carry, making their performance on the ground crucial in this rematch.

Conversely, the Sooners hope to capitalize on Alabama’s defensive vulnerabilities. John Mateer, Oklahoma’s quarterback, has experienced a decline in performance since suffering an injury earlier in the season. With a significant break before this game, he aims to return to form against a formidable Alabama secondary that ranks among the best in the nation.

Predictions for this matchup vary, with projections ranging from Alabama narrowly defeating Oklahoma 21-17 to Oklahoma pulling off another upset at 20-17.

No. 10 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies

In another intriguing contest, the Miami Hurricanes will face the Texas A&M Aggies at 12 PM ET. Both teams have qualified for their first College Football Playoff, with Miami boasting a 10-2 record and Texas A&M at 11-1. Miami’s entry was secured by a head-to-head victory over Notre Dame, which underscores the stakes in this matchup.

Miami’s star freshman wide receiver, Malachi Toney, has emerged as a key player, recording a 90.5 PFF receiving grade. His performance will be pivotal against a Texas A&M defense known for limiting explosive plays. The Hurricanes’ run game, led by running back Mark Fletcher Jr., also aims to exploit the Aggies’ weaknesses, particularly in the tackling department.

On the other hand, Texas A&M’s quarterback Marcel Reed has faced challenges with decision-making and accuracy, making the potential for turnovers a critical factor in the game. Miami’s defense, ranked among the top in the nation, will seek to pressure Reed and capitalize on any mistakes.

Predictions for this clash suggest a tight contest, with some analysts favoring Miami to win 28-24 while others predict a narrow Texas A&M victory at 20-23.

No. 11 Tulane Green Wave vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels

The third game features the Tulane Green Wave against the Ole Miss Rebels. This rematch is particularly significant as Ole Miss previously triumphed over Tulane 45-10 earlier in the season. Ole Miss, now under head coach Pete Golding, seeks to continue its strong season after achieving an 11-1 record.

Tulane’s quarterback Jake Retzlaff struggled in the first matchup, posting unimpressive stats. The Green Wave will need to find effective solutions against Ole Miss’ defensive strategies, particularly their blitz packages. Tulane’s late-season success with running back Jamauri McClure will be critical as they look to establish a balanced offensive attack.

Ole Miss’ quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has demonstrated effectiveness with deep passes, which could pose challenges for Tulane’s secondary. The Rebels’ run game, featuring multiple threats, will aim to exploit any defensive lapses by Tulane.

Predictions for this matchup lean towards Ole Miss claiming victory, with scores ranging from 38-20 to 35-17.

No. 12 James Madison Dukes vs. No. 5 Oregon Ducks

In the final first-round game, the James Madison Dukes will face the Oregon Ducks. This marks a historic playoff debut for James Madison, which finished the season with a 12-1 record and a Sun Belt Championship. Oregon, boasting an 11-1 record, returns to the playoffs after a strong season.

James Madison’s quarterback Alonza Barnett III will face a formidable Oregon defense that limits explosive plays effectively. Barnett’s ability to perform under pressure will be tested as he leads his team against Oregon’s well-rounded defense.

Oregon’s run game has been highly productive, with multiple players contributing significantly to their offensive strategy. The Dukes will need to contain Oregon’s running backs while also pressuring quarterback Dante Moore to disrupt the Ducks’ rhythm.

Predictions for this game suggest Oregon will secure a decisive victory, with projections ranging from 34-17 to 31-13.

As the College Football Playoff begins, fans can expect thrilling action and high-stakes drama as these teams compete for a place in the quarterfinals.