A recent poll reveals that if Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa were to withdraw from the race, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Democratic contender Zohran Mamdani would be in a tightly contested battle for the mayoral seat. Conducted by Gotham Polling in conjunction with the city’s AARP, the survey indicates that Mamdani would lead with 44.6% of likely voters, while Cuomo would follow closely behind at 40.7%.
The poll, which surveyed 1,040 likely voters from October 14-15, 2023, highlights a significant portion of the electorate that remains undecided. Nearly 15% of respondents over the age of 50 reported they have not yet made up their minds. This demographic is particularly crucial, as they tend to represent a reliable voting bloc in New York City elections.
In August, Cuomo saw a notable increase in support among older voters, gaining nine points in popularity. The political landscape shifted further when incumbent Mayor Eric Adams announced his exit from the race as an Independent, a decision that followed a September poll where Mamdani held a substantial lead over both Cuomo and Adams, who garnered less than 10% of the vote.
Key Issues and Voter Dynamics
The poll results come at a time when key issues such as the cost of living, housing affordability, and safety dominate the New York City mayoral race. According to Stephen Graves, President of Gotham Polling and Analytics, “The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds. If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate — by far the most reliable voting bloc — will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.”
Mamdani’s campaign has not been without controversy. Recently, he faced backlash on social media after sharing a photo with Imam Siraj Wahhaj, an individual identified as an unindicted co-conspirator in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. The bombing resulted in the deaths of six people. In his post, Mamdani referred to Wahhaj as “one of the nation’s foremost Muslim leaders and a pillar of the Bed-Stuy community for nearly half a century.”
As the mayoral race continues to unfold, the dynamics among the candidates may shift, especially if Sliwa decides to exit the race. With Mamdani currently leading his opponents by double digits, the coming weeks will be critical in shaping the future of New York City’s leadership.
