The New York Mets are reportedly considering a significant move: signing free agent Kyle Tucker. The outfielder, who previously played for the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs, has emerged as a top target following a winter of substantial changes for the Mets. As the team reshapes its lineup, Tucker’s strong performance history makes him a compelling candidate.
Since being drafted fifth overall by the Astros in 2015, Tucker has consistently been recognized as one of baseball’s elite talents. By the start of the 2019 season, he was ranked among the top fifteen prospects by prominent outlets such as Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. His breakout came during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when he played in 58 games, achieving a 122 wRC+ and a 1.8 fWAR. Since then, Tucker has maintained a high level of performance, averaging between four and five wins by fWAR each season from 2021 to 2023.
Despite a setback in 2024 due to a shin injury that limited him to just 78 games, Tucker showcased his potential by hitting 23 home runs in 339 plate appearances, resulting in a remarkable 179 wRC+ and a fWAR of 4.2. Following the season, he was traded to the Cubs, where he continued to excel, finishing the year with 22 home runs and a 136 wRC+ in 136 games.
As of now, Tucker remains one of the most sought-after free agents, having been ranked as the top player available by FanGraphs at the onset of the offseason. The Mets, fresh off parting ways with key players like Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil, have yet to significantly improve their lineup.
Among the new additions, Marcus Semien, who joined the Mets in the trade that sent Nimmo to the Texas Rangers, has seen varying success. Semien is projected to bat second in the lineup, although he finished the previous season with an underwhelming 89 wRC+. Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco, signed to a two-year deal, is expected to fill the cleanup spot after a more productive season, boasting a 132 wRC+.
Despite these additions, the Mets retain two of the league’s premier players in their primes: Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. Lindor, entering his age-32 season, has consistently hit over 30 home runs and averaged 6.5 fWAR over the last four years. Soto, only 27, has also made a significant impact, recording 43 home runs and a 156 wRC+ last season, totaling 5.8 fWAR.
Given their current financial landscape, the Mets have made long-term commitments primarily to Lindor and Soto. Beyond the 2027 season, only Semien and newly-acquired relief pitcher Devin Williams have guaranteed contracts. FanGraphs estimates Tucker’s market value could reach an eight-year, $280 million deal, but the Mets may prefer a shorter contract with a higher average annual value. Reports suggest the Toronto Blue Jays are willing to offer a longer-term deal, which could heighten the competition for Tucker’s services.
Tucker’s performance since the beginning of the 2022 season, with a 18.5 fWAR, positions him behind only Soto and Lindor among their contemporaries. The Mets, having invested heavily in their roster, may find acquiring Tucker advantageous, particularly given their strengths and existing gaps in the team.
While Tucker is not yet in the same tier as Lindor and Soto, his addition could fill a critical need for the Mets, especially as they navigate a challenging offseason. With a wealthy ownership group and a high payroll already committed, it may be prudent for the Mets to pursue Tucker aggressively to bolster their roster and enhance their competitive standing in the league.
As the offseason progresses, the Mets face the challenge of addressing other areas, including a troubled starting rotation. Although the Mets have promising prospects, including left-handed outfielder Carson Benge, their immediate focus should remain on securing established talent like Tucker. The stakes are high, and making a strategic investment in a player of Tucker’s caliber could prove pivotal for the Mets’ future success.
