UPDATE: The Texas Senate race is intensifying as immigration enforcement tactics take center stage in the political arena, just weeks before the March 3, 2025 primary. With border crossings sharply down, Republican candidates are doubling down on enforcement strategies, igniting fierce debates about the future of immigration policy in the state.
Mario Guerrero, executive director of the South Texas Builders Association, voiced his support for Donald Trump in the upcoming election, citing what he called an “insane” spike in border crossings under the previous administration. However, Guerrero expressed concern over recent federal construction-site raids that have disrupted daily operations in Edinburg. “The whole workforce, whether people have proper documentation or not, they’re all scared,” he stated, noting significant impacts on businesses and job flow.
Republican candidates, including incumbent John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, are focusing on strict enforcement measures to energize their conservative base. As ICE apprehensions have surged 132% nationally from January to October of 2025 compared to the same period last year, these candidates argue that such actions are necessary to restore order and security.
The political landscape has shifted dramatically, with border crossings now at a trickle. Most migrants are quickly turned back or subjected to expedited removal. This decline has altered the narrative, with Republicans celebrating reduced crossings while shifting the debate towards enforcement actions within the U.S.
In contrast, Democratic contenders Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico are criticizing the aggressive tactics employed by ICE. They argue that heightened enforcement is creating labor shortages and raising civil liberty concerns. Crockett, a civil rights attorney, highlighted her legislative efforts to reform immigration practices, while Talarico condemned the violent methods used during enforcement, referencing a recent incident in Minneapolis that resulted in a tragic death.
As the political stakes rise, the candidates are positioning themselves to appeal to voters who are increasingly conflicted about immigration. Public sentiment reflects a complicated mix of concern for border security and recognition of the economic contributions made by immigrants.
Independent polling indicates that while illegal immigration remains a pressing issue, many Texans are wary of harsh enforcement tactics. Amerika Garcia Grewal, who leads a monthly border vigil in Eagle Pass, warned that the visible ICE operations could backfire on Republicans. “Voters are weighing the human toll of aggressive enforcement,” she stated.
The urgency of this political shift is evident, with candidates scrambling to define their stances ahead of the primary. Paxton has formalized Texas’ cooperation with federal immigration directives, emphasizing the need for stringent security measures. In response, Cornyn has pushed for increased funding for deportations and enhanced penalties for attacks on law enforcement.
Texas political scientist Jeronimo Cortina remarked that the immigration debate has evolved from focusing solely on border issues to encompassing enforcement actions, raising questions about how this will play out in the general election.
As the March primary approaches, the battle lines are drawn. Republican candidates are embracing a hardline approach, while Democrats are advocating for a more humane strategy. The outcome of this pivotal race may shape Texas immigration policy for years to come, making it essential for voters to consider the implications of each candidate’s platform.
What to watch for: As the primary date nears, keep an eye on how candidates adjust their messages in response to evolving public opinion and enforcement outcomes. Expect heated debates and intensified campaigning as both parties strive to secure voter support in this critical election cycle.
