UPDATE: Black Friday 2023 is set for a significant shopping surge, even as U.S. consumer confidence wavers amid economic challenges, including a recent federal government shutdown and persistent inflation. With the holiday shopping season officially kicking off tomorrow, retailers are eager to see if the traditional “halo effect” will boost sales as consumers seek out deals.
As of today, November 24, 2023, crowds are expected to flock to stores across the nation, despite a shift towards online shopping that has diluted the frenzy of previous years. Though midnight shopping sprees are fading, the day after Thanksgiving remains a pivotal time for retailers, with many reporting strong foot traffic.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, spoke to The Conference Board’s findings, stating, “Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now, so the outlook is probably better than they are telling us.” However, he noted that shoppers are increasingly discerning and selective about where they spend their money.
Retailers have been navigating a complex landscape due to the Trump administration’s tariffs on imported goods, which triggered price increases across various categories. According to market research firm Circana, approximately 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw price hikes of at least 5%. Notably, 83% of toys sold during that month experienced similar increases, impacting holiday shopping budgets.
Despite these challenges, there are signs of optimism. At the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, foot traffic has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with Jill Renslow, the mall’s chief business development and marketing officer, reporting a “very positive start to the holiday season.”
Online sales have also shown robust growth. From November 1 to November 23, consumers spent $79.7 billion online, marking a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. This surge exceeded Adobe Analytics’ forecast of 5.3% growth for the season.
Looking forward, Mastercard SpendingPulse predicts a 3.6% increase in overall holiday sales from November 1 through December 24, slightly down from 4.1% last year. Michelle Meyer, Mastercard’s Chief Economist, acknowledged the prevailing consumer uncertainty but emphasized that it hasn’t deterred shoppers from participating in this year’s holiday events.
Experts suggest that Thanksgiving Day is optimal for snagging discounts on sporting goods, while Black Friday will offer the best deals on TVs, toys, and appliances. Shoppers are advised to wait until Cyber Monday for substantial apparel and computer discounts, with apparel prices expected to drop by up to 25% off suggested retail prices.
With consumers navigating higher prices and fluctuating economic conditions, the coming days will reveal whether Black Friday retains its status as the unofficial kickoff to the holiday shopping season. Retailers and shoppers alike are anxious to see how this year’s sales will unfold, making it a crucial moment for the U.S. retail industry.
