A recent global analysis indicates that the incidence of psoriasis, a prevalent inflammatory skin condition, is set to increase significantly by the year 2050. Researchers, including Linli Liu, MD, from the Suining Central Hospital in China, utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 to project the rising impact of psoriasis across various demographic groups and regions of the world.
The study highlights a crucial need to understand how psoriasis affects different age cohorts, sexes, and geographic locations, as previous research had not adequately explored these distinctions. Liu and her colleagues note that “understanding these variations is critical for informing public health strategies, improving health care access, and supporting early diagnosis worldwide.”
The investigative team analyzed information from 236 countries gathered between 1990 and 2021. They examined the prevalence, incidence rates, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with psoriasis, focusing on variations based on sex, age, and geographic area. By employing an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, they forecasted age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) with a 95% confidence interval.
Rising Incidence Rates Highlight Global Health Challenge
According to the findings, there has been a moderate increase in the global burden of psoriasis from 1990 to 2021. The ASIR for male patients rose from 56.89 to 62.77 cases per 100,000, marking a 10.3% increase. Similarly, female patients saw an increase from 57.08 to 61.26 cases per 100,000, reflecting a 7.3% rise. Projections suggest that by 2050, approximately 70 per 100,000 men and 66 per 100,000 women may be affected by the condition.
The research team also performed a sensitivity analysis that excluded the 2021 data point, revealing a flattening of the ASIR among males and indicating broader prediction intervals. In contrast, the trajectory for females remained consistent with their primary analysis.
Geographic disparities in psoriasis incidence were also pronounced. The study found that East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa reported substantially lower disease estimates, likely due to limited data availability and potential under-ascertainment of cases. In contrast, Western Europe and North America exhibited the highest crude incidence and prevalence rates.
Sex-Specific Trends and Socioeconomic Links
The analysis indicated that incidence rates were comparable between boys and girls aged 5 to 19 years, but a significant increase in disease incidence was noted among older male age cohorts. The researchers identified a strong positive correlation between ASIR and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI), with a statistical significance threshold set at P < .001.
Overall, the study confirms a rising global burden of psoriasis from 1990 to 2021, aligning with prior data. The projections indicate a continuous increase in psoriasis incidence for both sexes through 2050. However, when excluding the 2021 data point, the projected increase for males diminished, leading to greater uncertainty. Liu and her team emphasized that further exploration of the drivers behind these sex-specific differences is essential.
The findings also underscore that the burden of psoriasis is most pronounced in high-income regions like North America and Western Europe. The positive correlation between ASIR and SDI mirrors earlier reports, though Liu et al. noted that the GBD data might not fully account for various ecological confounders, including data availability and demographic composition.
As the global health community prepares to address these trends, the need for focused public health strategies to manage and treat psoriasis has never been more pressing. The growing incidence of this condition necessitates an urgent response to improve healthcare access and early diagnosis worldwide.
