California is experiencing a notable shift in its higher education landscape, with an increasing number of students opting for out-of-state colleges. Despite having the largest public four-year higher education system in the United States and some of the highest-ranked public universities, the state is losing ground in attracting its own graduates. The University of California system welcomed a record **100,947** first-year California students in the fall of 2022, marking a **7%** increase from the previous year. Yet, this growth is overshadowed by the rising trend of students leaving California for their college education.
A recent report from the Public Policy Institute of California highlights that the share of college-bound California high school graduates enrolling in out-of-state institutions has surged over the past two decades. This figure rose from **8.5%** in **2002** to **14.6%** in **2022**. Many colleges and universities outside California actively seek out these students, with institutions in the West Coast and Southwest particularly focused on recruitment efforts. Public universities often offer discounted tuition to California residents through various programs, making the prospect of studying out of state even more appealing.
In **2022**, nearly **40,000** California high school graduates chose to attend colleges outside of the state. Of these, approximately one-third enrolled in institutions in **Arizona**, **Oregon**, or **New York**. This represents a significant increase from around **15,000** in **2002**. Popular choices in Arizona included Arizona State University, Grand Canyon University, and the University of Arizona. In Oregon, the University of Oregon attracted the highest number of Californian students. Meanwhile, those heading to New York often gravitated towards smaller, private liberal arts colleges, which typically charge higher tuition than California’s public universities.
Erica Rosales, executive director of College Match, a mentoring program for low-income students in Los Angeles, noted that after factoring in financial aid or merit-based scholarships, private colleges can sometimes be more affordable than California’s public institutions. “For a low-income, first-generation student, a private institution that meets full need without loans is often the most affordable and most supportive option available,” Rosales explained. She emphasized that current financial aid structures, like the Cal Grant income ceilings, often leave middle-class families struggling to afford tuition at University of California or California State University campuses.
Rosales also pointed out that financial aid at CSU campuses generally covers tuition but does not extend to room and board, further complicating the affordability issue for many families. To address this growing trend, more research is necessary to understand the factors driving high school graduates out of state. The Public Policy Institute of California suggests that increasing access to Cal Grants and ensuring students are aware of the benefits of staying in-state could stem the flow. Promising initiatives include direct admissions programs, like a pilot program developed in partnership with Riverside County.
California’s higher education system faces significant challenges as it grapples with the implications of this trend. While the state continues to produce a wealth of talent, the outflow of students to other states raises questions about the future of its public universities and the broader impact on its economy. As the educational landscape evolves, California must innovate to retain its graduates and remain competitive in the national higher education arena.
