A recent study has revealed that nearly 2 million Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, wounded, or reported missing since the onset of the war. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, the casualty figures are projected to reach this staggering number by spring 2024. The analysis estimates that Russia has suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties, significantly higher than Ukraine’s estimated 600,000.
The CSIS report indicates that Russia has endured close to 325,000 military deaths since the conflict began in February 2022, starkly contradicting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims of an impending victory. “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities since World War II,” stated Seth Jones, the report’s lead author, in an interview with The Post.
As the conflict continues, Russia is projected to sustain an average of 35,000 troops killed or injured each month, potentially leading to 415,000 casualties in 2025 alone. This figure is alarming when compared to other significant Russian military engagements; casualties have exceeded more than 17 times those during the 1980s Afghanistan offensive and more than 11 times the losses in the First and Second Chechen Wars. The current toll is also more than five times greater than all Russian and Soviet conflicts combined since World War II.
The high casualty rate has been attributed to Russia’s lack of effective strategy, insufficient training for its troops, and low morale, compounded by Ukraine’s robust defensive measures. In contrast, Ukraine has reportedly seen between 100,000 and 140,000 soldiers killed, a notable loss given its smaller military size.
The findings underscore Russia’s prevalent military strategy, characterized by sending troops into high-casualty situations to eventually wear down Ukrainian defenses. “President Putin appears willing to continue to shed Russian blood for Ukraine,” Jones noted. He emphasized that the high casualty rates and Russia’s economic downturn will not likely compel the Kremlin to negotiate, at least under terms favorable to Ukraine or Europe.
Jones further suggested that the high number of casualties may be less concerning for Putin because many of the fallen soldiers hail from regions such as the Far East and North Caucasus, which are not politically critical to him compared to major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. Despite the heavy losses, the strategy may prove detrimental for Russia, as the limited territorial gains achieved have come at an exorbitant cost.
Russian forces have advanced at a sluggish pace, reportedly moving between 15 and 70 meters per day during their most prominent offensives. This rate of progress is slower than many significant military campaigns in the last century, including the infamous Battle of the Somme during World War I.
Although both Russia and Ukraine do not publicly disclose their casualty figures, the CSIS estimates align with assessments from other experts in the United States and the United Kingdom. In an effort to bolster its forces, Russia has initiated its first drafts since World War II, enlisting convicted criminals and foreign fighters, including an estimated 15,000 North Koreans.
As the conflict drags on with no resolution in sight, the implications of these staggering casualty figures reflect not only the human cost of war but also the potential long-term impacts on military strategy and political stability in the region.
