The introduction of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs, such as Ozempic, is fundamentally altering food purchasing patterns among American consumers. Recent research conducted by Cornell University reveals that households utilizing these medications are significantly reducing their grocery spending and changing their dietary preferences, leading to a notable impact on the food industry.
In an extensive study, researchers analyzed transaction records from Numerator, a market research firm tracking grocery and restaurant purchases for approximately 150,000 US households. They combined these records with repeated surveys that assessed household members’ use of weight-loss medications, including when they started and whether they discontinued use. This methodology allowed the team to compare food spending before and after the initiation of GLP-1 treatments.
The findings were striking: within six months of starting a GLP-1 drug, households decreased their grocery spending by an average of 5.3%. Notably, higher-income households reported an even greater reduction of around 8%. Fast-food outlets and coffee shops also faced declines, experiencing a drop in sales of about 8%.
Shifts in Food Preferences and Purchasing Patterns
The researchers observed that the decrease in grocery spending was not uniform across all categories, indicating a shift in eating habits among GLP-1 users. Sales of ultra-processed and calorie-dense foods, typically associated with cravings, fell sharply, with sweets and savory snacks down by approximately 10%. Surprisingly, staples such as eggs and meat also saw reduced sales. In contrast, some food categories experienced an upswing, with yogurt showing the most significant increase in sales following the adoption of GLP-1 medications. Fresh fruits, nutritional bars, and meat-based snacks also gained popularity.
“The main pattern is a reduction in overall food purchases,” stated Sylvia Hristakeva from the Cornell SC Johnson College of Business. “Only a small number of categories show increases, and those increases are modest relative to the overall decline.”
As the number of US households with at least one GLP-1 medication user rose from 11% in late 2023 to more than 16% by mid-2024, the implications for the food industry are significant. The study also highlighted that approximately one-third of those surveyed stopped taking GLP-1 medications during the research period, which led to a return to previous purchasing habits characterized by less healthy food choices and increased quantities.
Future Implications for the Food Industry
Looking ahead, researchers predict that the number of Americans using GLP-1 drugs could reach 24 million by 2035. This growing trend poses both challenges and opportunities for food manufacturers, who are already adapting their marketing strategies. Justin Shimek, CEO of food innovation firm Mattson, which serves clients like PepsiCo and McDonald’s, remarked that these medications present both risks and opportunities for the food industry. He emphasized that this period is likely to bring significant disruption.
According to a Mattson report, GLP-1 users are consuming 66% less soda and alcohol, with 93% reporting smaller meal sizes and more than 60% stating they think about food less often. In response to this shift, companies like Conagra Brands have begun labeling products as “GLP-1 Friendly,” despite no changes to their existing recipes.
The Cornell researchers anticipate that food package sizes, formulations, and marketing strategies will be adjusted to reflect the increasing prevalence of GLP-1 medications. “At current adoption rates, even relatively modest changes at the household level can have meaningful aggregate effects,” Hristakeva explained. Understanding these demand shifts will be crucial for evaluating food markets and consumer spending trends moving forward.
While the research does not definitively confirm that GLP-1 drugs are solely responsible for the decrease in food spending, the evidence from clinical trials and the rebound in shopping habits once medication was stopped suggest that appetite suppression plays a key role.
In a report from Morgan Stanley, analysts expressed optimism regarding restaurants and specialty food outlets, noting that dining experiences extend beyond mere sustenance. Brian Harbour, who oversees coverage of US restaurants and food distributors at Morgan Stanley, stated, “Many chains will evolve over time to respond to consumer tastes.” He cautioned, however, that restaurants could face declining sales in the medium term as consumer preferences shift.
This comprehensive study was published in the Journal of Marketing Research, highlighting the significant impact of GLP-1 medications on American food consumption and spending patterns. The evolving landscape of food purchasing reflects broader societal changes, underscoring the importance of adapting to new consumer behaviors.
