Public health experts are forecasting a challenging flu season for 2023, marked by the emergence of new variants and lower vaccination rates. Despite current moderate infection rates in Texas, the situation is evolving as cities across the United States report increased cases of a new influenza variant, referred to by some as a “super flu.”
Dr. Catherine Troisi, a professor of epidemiology at UT Health Houston School of Public Health, highlighted three significant factors contributing to this year’s anticipated severity. The primary concern is the circulating strain of influenza A known as H3N2, which is associated with more severe illness.
“Currently, we are witnessing the H3N2 variant, which has historically been linked to higher hospitalization rates,” Dr. Troisi explained. In addition to this strain, the newly identified variant, designated subclade K, is raising alarm. Dr. Troisi elaborated, “A subclade can be thought of as branches on a family tree; they are related but distinct. This new variant is concerning because many people lack immunity against it, making them more susceptible to infection.”
The rapid spread of subclade K is another factor in the experts’ predictions. While current evidence suggests it may not cause more severe illness than its predecessor, the lack of immunity among the population could lead to higher infection rates.
Vaccination trends are also worrying. Dr. Troisi noted that flu vaccination rates have dropped significantly this year. Preliminary data from England, which experienced an earlier spike in cases of subclade K, indicates that the annual flu vaccine provides some level of protection against this variant. “While the influenza vaccine is not perfect, it is effective in reducing the risk of severe disease and hospitalization,” she stated.
For those who have yet to receive their flu shot, Dr. Troisi emphasized that it is not too late to get vaccinated. “The number of flu infections is increasing weekly in Texas, although it has not yet escalated to the same level as seen in other regions,” she added.
As the holiday season approaches, Dr. Troisi anticipates a surge in influenza cases due to increased travel and social gatherings. “Families coming together, children returning home from school, and colder weather will contribute to the spread of influenza,” she insisted.
While most reported cases are currently of the H3N2 strain, Dr. Troisi reminded the public that the vaccine also offers protection against H1N1, another variant circulating in the community.
With the flu season in full swing, public health officials urge individuals to prioritize vaccination and remain vigilant as they navigate potential outbreaks. The ongoing situation highlights the importance of community health measures as the country enters what may be a particularly tough flu season.
