UPDATE: The highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has been delayed, with significant implications for inflation tracking in the United States. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed that due to the ongoing government shutdown, the October 2023 data will not be published, shifting focus to the November 2023 inflation estimates.
This developing story is crucial for investors and policymakers alike, as inflation metrics play a vital role in shaping economic decisions. Analysts expect the headline annual inflation for November to register at 3.1%, a slight increase from 3.0% in September. Meanwhile, core inflation is projected to remain steady at 3.0%.
The BLS’s decision to skip October figures means that market participants must rely on a two-month change for insights. Although some October data may still be inferred through online prices and private sources, the lack of comprehensive reporting complicates the economic landscape.
Officials from Bank of America (BofA) anticipate core CPI will average 0.23% month-over-month across October and November, predicting a decrease in both headline and core inflation to 2.9% by November. BofA cites shifts in health insurance costs as a contributing factor to this expected dip.
In contrast, Goldman Sachs projects a slightly lower core CPI average of 0.21% m/m, highlighting the upward pressure from tariffs on goods, which may add approximately 0.08 percentage points to core inflation. However, the bank notes potential downward adjustments from delayed data collection, particularly affecting categories with typical holiday discounts.
Similarly, analysts at Barclays predict core CPI will average 0.29% m/m, suggesting that price changes from September to November will be crucial for understanding inflation trends. They also caution that the report may not provide a “clean” read due to incomplete October data.
As markets brace for the implications of these estimates, the urgency surrounding inflation continues to grow. Investors and consumers alike will be watching closely as the situation unfolds.
Next Steps: The BLS is expected to release the November CPI report on December 12, 2023. Stakeholders are urged to monitor developments closely, as these numbers will have far-reaching effects on economic policy and market behavior.
Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to track this evolving story.
